Bloomberg
ran’s diplomats are used to meeting Westerners for nuclear talks — they’ve been doing it for almost 20 years.
But the Islamic Republic’s latest discussions with the US, which adjourned late yesterday in Geneva, are happening against the backdrop of some extraordinary challenges unlike anything its experienced negotiators have had to deal with before.
The country’s fortunes have transformed since its top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, first met with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff last year. They’ve been through a war with Israel and they’ve had their biggest nuclear facilities bombed by the US.
At the heart of their dilemma is that they are dealing with an unpredictable US president they do not understand.
The bitter experience of being attacked by Israel — a top US ally — last June taught them a lesson. At any moment, any political capital they spend on engaging with Washington and dangling financial incentives in front of Trump can be wiped away in minutes by another strike by Israel or one ordered by Trump himself.
They are strategizing for the very real possibility of a war, while at the same time preparing for what the oil markets seem to believe is the less likely outcome of an agreement with the US.
At home, levels of domestic dissent are as threatening to Iranian officials as the US flotilla that’s encircling the Middle East. It’s set to be boosted by a second carrier strike group reportedly already in Israeli waters.
Iranians are still reeling from the violence and trauma unleashed on them by the Islamic Republic’s security forces during the recent uprising.
Opposition to the theocratic system Araghchi represents is so widespread that it’s hard to imagine it can be fixed with some sanctions relief.
For Araghchi, a deal with Trump won’t just deliver an economic lifeline — as it did back in 2015 — but, he hopes, the very survival of the Islamic Republic. — Golnar Motevalli